Water resources carrying capacity model and prediction in Shandong Province based on social and economic factors

In this paper, considering the influence of economic, social, resource and environmental factors on water resources in Shandong Province, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model carrying capacity is established based DPSIR index system, to evaluate annual change Province. Then main influencing total social consumption are obtained by grey correlation, functional relation regression model. Finally, development trend predicted time series. The results show that: utilization Province has reached very high level, stage scarcity, shortage will continue intensify future. Therefore, it suggested that management policies should be formulated save use intensively, order ensure optimal allocation scientific sustainable